MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP

61.56 -1.93 (-3.13%) Sell

Doubt in the minds of MPC investors as it ranked among the worst performers

13 min read

MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it on Friday. It fell by -3.13% to close at 61.56 which is it's 52 week low, down -28% from it's 52 week high.

[Themes containing MPC]

MPC is currently in a bearish trend. Over the last three months 2 bearish signals have generated a profit of +14.55% for investors.

Trend

MPC has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 14 Jun, 2016 to 26 Apr, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, MPC underperformed the SP500 index on 46% days. Which indicates that on days MPC underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months MPC was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.44% per day. It's best return during this period (of +3.97%) was on Monday, 26 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -6.22%) was on Friday, 19 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 losing days, which started on 4 Oct, 2018 and ended on 11 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -9.17% of investor capital.

During the last year MPC had 6 profitable months and 6 loss making months. MPC returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. MPC significantly outperformed SP500 index in Jul 2018, when it returned +15.03% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. MPC had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Sep 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -30.38%. It is interesting to note that both MPC and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"Investors must keep in mind that there's a difference between a good company and a good stock. After all, you can buy a good car but pay too much for it .

MPC is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in MPC's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 2 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that MPC has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect MPC to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes MPC a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

Investors trading in MPC derivatives at this moment can consider 'Bull Call Spread' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

MPC has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, MPC must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than MPC.

Based on your interest in MPC you may find it interesting to know that AMZN, V and CSCO are large caps that have all shown remarkable performance and qualify to be on every investor's watchlist.

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