135.75 +2.62 (+1.93%) Buy

Party time for MOH investors as it outperforms broader market

13 min read

MOLINA HEALTHCARE INC delivered good returns on Tuesday. It grew by +1.93% to close at 135.75. It is currently trading +90% above it's 52 week low of 71.14 and is down only -11% from it's 52 week high.

[Themes containing MOH]

Buy-and-Hold investors in MOH experienced a maximum drawdown of -22.6% over the last three months. It returned -9.34% during this down trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +2.23%.


MOH has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, MOH outperformed the SP500 index on 53% days.

During the last three months MOH was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.13% per day. It's best return during this period (of +10.54%) was on Wednesday, 7 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -6.23%) was on Wednesday, 14 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 17 Oct, 2018 and went on till 24 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -10.39% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 20 Nov, 2018 and ended on 23 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +8.74% to investors.

On monthly basis, MOH delivered profits in more months over the last year, than losses. MOH delivered profits in more months than SP500 index. MOH significantly outperformed SP500 index in Aug 2018, when it returned +32.58% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. MOH had a longer winning streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It went up in 7 straight months (from Mar 2018 to Sep 2018) during which period it delivered +81.1%.

"There are two kinds of investors, be they large or small: those who don't know where the market is headed, and those who don't know that they don't know. Then again, there is a third type of investor -the investment professional, who indeed knows that he or she doesn't know, but whose livelihood depends upon appearing to know.

MOH is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in MOH's volatility from 4 Oct, 2018 to 7 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that MOH has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than MOH. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than MOH in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than MOH.

Based on your interest in MOH you may find it interesting to know that LAWS, CRDA and FBK have all performed similar to MOH and qualify as alternative investment candidates that must be evaluated for diversification.

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