31.03 -0.4 (-1.3%) Sell

Doubt in the minds of MLHR investors as it was among the worst performers

13 min read

MILLER HERMAN INC is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it on Friday. It fell by -1.3% to close at 31.03. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 14% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0191%.

[Themes containing MLHR]

Buy-and-Hold investors in MLHR experienced a maximum drawdown of -22.04% over the last three months. It fell by -16.25% during this strong bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +0.61%.


MLHR has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 31 Aug, 2016 to 30 Apr, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, MLHR underperformed the SP500 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days MLHR underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months MLHR was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.26% per day. It's best return during this period (of +6.85%) was on Thursday, 20 Sep, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.75%) was on Monday, 1 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 5 losing days, which started on 8 Nov, 2018 and ended on 14 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -4.7% of investor capital.

During the last year MLHR had 6 profitable months and 6 loss making months. MLHR returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. MLHR was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Feb 2018, returned -11.36% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. MLHR had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 5 straight months during the last year.

I'd like to live as a poor man with lots of money.
-- Pablo Picasso

MLHR is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in MLHR's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that MLHR has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect MLHR to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes MLHR a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than MLHR. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than MLHR in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than MLHR.

Based on your interest in MLHR you may find it interesting to know that TPNL has shown remarkable performance this year and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.

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