MGP INGREDIENTS INC is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it today. It lost -5.95% to close at 56.45. It's recent 5 day performance has been +1.23%, -2.16%, -1.56%, -3.1% and -2.19%.
MGPI is currently in a down trend. The current bearish signal has generated a profit of +27.85% for investors in the last three months.
During the last three months MGPI was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.5% per day. It's best return during this period (of +4.47%) was on Tuesday, 6 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -7.34%) was on Friday, 2 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 25 Sep, 2018 and went on till 28 Sep, 2018. The bullish trend returned +1.31% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 3 Dec, 2018 and ended on 11 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -13.5% of investor capital.
MGPI had 5 profitable and 7 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, MGPI underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. MGPI was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Dec 2018, returned -16.97% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. MGPI had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Oct 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -27.68%. It is interesting to note that both MGPI and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
Never spend your money before you have earned it.
-- Thomas Jefferson
MGPI is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in MGPI's volatility from 28 Sep, 2018 to 2 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that MGPI has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.
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