28.78 0.0 (0.0%) Sell

Don't buy MDC now, it is underperforming the market

13 min read

MDC HOLDINGS INC underperformed broader market today. It fell by 0.0% to close at 28.78. It's recent 5 day performance has been +2.09%, -4.44%, +0.17%, -0.54% and -1.76%.

[Themes containing MDC]

MDC showed a bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period MDC fell by -8.05% and saw a maximum drawdown of -21.27%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +8.05%.


MDC has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 28 Jun, 2017 to 22 Oct, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, MDC outperformed the SP500 index on 54% days.

During the last three months MDC was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.11% per day. It's best return during this period (of +5.65%) was on Thursday, 25 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.89%) was on Monday, 22 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 4 losing days, which started on 19 Sep, 2018 and ended on 24 Sep, 2018. This bearish trend lost -7.01% of investor capital.

During the last year MDC had 6 profitable months and 6 loss making months. MDC returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. MDC was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Feb 2018, returned -17.89% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. MDC had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both MDC and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Money is multiplied in practical value depending on the number of W's you control in your life: what you do, when you do it, where you do it, and with whom you do it.
-- Timothy Ferriss

MDC is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in MDC's volatility from 2 Oct, 2018 to 1 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that MDC has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect MDC to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes MDC a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than MDC. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than MDC in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than MDC.

Based on your interest in MDC you may find it interesting to know that LMNR has delivered similar performance as MDC and can be considered as an alternative investment candidate (to MDC).

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