12.67 -0.1 (-0.78%) Sell

MCRN is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

MILACRON HOLDINGS CORP. was among the worst performers on Friday. It returned -0.78% to close at 12.67. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 73% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0191%.

[Themes containing MCRN]

MCRN is currently in a down trend. Over the last three months 3 bearish signals have generated a profit of +32.47% for investors.


MCRN has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 26 Apr, 2016. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, MCRN underperformed the SP500 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days MCRN underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

MCRN returned losses on 62% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.8% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -7.07%, during this period, on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 17 Oct, 2018 and went on till 29 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -27.73% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 1 Nov, 2018 and ended on 7 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +6.99% to investors.

On monthly basis, MCRN delivered profits and losses in equal number of months. MCRN delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. MCRN was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -31.0% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. MCRN had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 2 straight months during the last year.

Everyone has the brainpower to follow the stock market. If you made it through fifth-grade math, you can do it .
-- Peter Lynch

MCRN is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in MCRN's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that MCRN has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than MCRN. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than MCRN in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than MCRN.

On a general note (since you are interested in MCRN), two instruments that deserve special mention are AMRH and NSPR. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.

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