38.62 +0.91 (+2.36%) Sell

MBUU does a dead cat bounce, it's still too early to buy into it

13 min read

MALIBU BOATS, INC. outperformed the broader market today. It increased by +2.36% to close at 38.62. It's recent 5 day performance has been -4.19%, +0.95%, -0.61%, -2.36% and -5.61%.

[Themes containing MBUU]

MBUU showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period MBUU delivered -27.05% and saw a maximum drawdown of -32.05%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +24.47%.


MBUU has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 29 Jun, 2016 to 1 Oct, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, MBUU outperformed the SP500 index on 53% days.

During the last three months MBUU was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.44% per day. It's best return during this period (of +16.5%) was on Tuesday, 6 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -10.2%) was on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 9 losing days, which started on 17 Oct, 2018 and ended on 29 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -24.46% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw MBUU's investors making profits in 7 months and incurring losses in 5 months. MBUU was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. MBUU significantly outperformed SP500 index in Aug 2018, when it returned +28.25% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. MBUU had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year.

We make a living by what we get, but we make a life by what we give.
-- Winston Churchill

MBUU is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in MBUU's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 1 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that MBUU has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than MBUU. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than MBUU in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than MBUU.

Based on your interest in MBUU you may find it interesting to know that LULU and SQ are both mid caps that have shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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