42.4 -0.57 (-1.35%) Sell

Want to invest in MBFI? Avoid as it significantly underperformed

13 min read

MB FINANCIAL INC significantly underperformed on Friday. It returned -1.35% to close at 42.4. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 77% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0233%.

[Themes containing MBFI]

MBFI showed a strong down trend over the last 3 months. During this period MBFI returned -13.13% and saw a maximum drawdown of -14.96%. There were 3 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +4.93% to investors.


MBFI has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 28 Dec, 2016. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, MBFI outperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.

MBFI returned losses on 59% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.21% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -5.81%, during this period, on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 21 Sep, 2018 and went on till 27 Sep, 2018. The trend delivered -5.46% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 29 Oct, 2018 and ended on 6 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +6.54% to investors.

On monthly basis, MBFI delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. MBFI delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. MBFI significantly outperformed SP500 index in May 2018, when it returned +15.88% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. MBFI had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Jan 2018 to Mar 2018) during which period it delivered -9.51%. It is interesting to note that both MBFI and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

It's pointless to set goals if you are not going to try to hit them.
-- Don Connelly

MBFI is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in MBFI's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 23 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that MBFI has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than MBFI. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than MBFI in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than MBFI.

On a general note (since you are interested in MBFI), EPIX has performed really well and deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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