MATTEL INC is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it on Tuesday. It lost -1.86% to close at 12.66 which is it's 52 week low, down -29% from it's 52 week high.
MAT showed a strong down trend over the last 3 months. During this period MAT lost -21.22% and saw a maximum drawdown of -23.83%. There were 6 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +0.4% to investors.
During the last three months MAT was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.36% per day. It's best return during this period (of +5.08%) was on Thursday, 1 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.33%) was on Tuesday, 2 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 12 Sep, 2018 and went on till 19 Sep, 2018. The bullish trend returned +3.39% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 8 Nov, 2018 and ended on 14 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -8.48% of investor capital.
MAT had 6 profitable and 6 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, MAT underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. MAT was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Mar 2018, returned -17.3% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. MAT had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year.
Security depends not so much upon how much you have, as upon how much you can do without.
-- Joseph Wood Krutch
MAT is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in MAT's volatility from 20 Sep, 2018 to 26 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that MAT has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.
Investors trading in MAT derivatives at this moment can consider 'Protective Collar' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.
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