MATTEL INC

12.66 -0.24 (-1.86%) Sell

MAT is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

MATTEL INC is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it on Tuesday. It lost -1.86% to close at 12.66 which is it's 52 week low, down -29% from it's 52 week high.

[Themes containing MAT]

MAT showed a strong down trend over the last 3 months. During this period MAT lost -21.22% and saw a maximum drawdown of -23.83%. There were 6 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +0.4% to investors.

Trend

MAT has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, MAT underperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.

During the last three months MAT was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.36% per day. It's best return during this period (of +5.08%) was on Thursday, 1 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.33%) was on Tuesday, 2 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 12 Sep, 2018 and went on till 19 Sep, 2018. The bullish trend returned +3.39% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 8 Nov, 2018 and ended on 14 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -8.48% of investor capital.

MAT had 6 profitable and 6 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, MAT underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. MAT was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Mar 2018, returned -17.3% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. MAT had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year.

Security depends not so much upon how much you have, as upon how much you can do without.
-- Joseph Wood Krutch

MAT is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in MAT's volatility from 20 Sep, 2018 to 26 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that MAT has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

Investors trading in MAT derivatives at this moment can consider 'Protective Collar' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than MAT. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than MAT in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than MAT.

Based on your interest in MAT you may find it interesting to know that DLPH and AMRH have both shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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