KKR is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it today. On a longer term basis, investors in KKR & CO. INC. made +0.04% per day. Friday's performance of -2.82% was a underperformance compared to it's daily average.
Buy-and-Hold investors in KKR experienced a maximum drawdown of -25.88% over the last three months. It delivered -20.3% during this strong bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +15.89%.
KKR has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 13 Jul, 2016 to 26 Jul, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, KKR outperformed the SP500 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days KKR outperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the SP500 index.
KKR returned losses on 56% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.33% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +6.28%, during this period, on Thursday, 25 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 11 profitable days, which started on 10 Sep, 2018 and went on till 24 Sep, 2018. This bullish trend returned +6.99% to investors.
The last 12 months saw KKR's investors making profits in 6 months and incurring losses in 6 months. KKR was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. KKR was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -14.0% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. KKR had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 4 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both KKR and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
"In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.
KKR is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in KKR's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 2 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that KKR has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect KKR to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes KKR a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.
Investors trading in KKR derivatives at this moment can consider 'Protective Collar' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.
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