61.49 +0.88 (+1.44%) Sell

KEYS does a dead cat bounce, it's still too early to buy into it

13 min read

KEYSIGHT TECHNOLOGIES, INC. delivered stellar performance on Friday. It gained +1.44% to close at 61.49. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 82% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0191%.

[Themes containing KEYS]

KEYS showed a down trend over the last 3 months. During this period KEYS returned -4.13% and saw a maximum drawdown of -18.0%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +0.32%.


KEYS has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, KEYS outperformed the SP500 index on 54% days.

KEYS returned losses on 54% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.05% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +5.48%, during this period, on Wednesday, 21 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 9 Nov, 2018 and went on till 14 Nov, 2018. The trend delivered -5.61% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 26 Nov, 2018 and ended on 3 Dec, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +9.95% to investors.

On monthly basis, KEYS delivered profits in more months over the last year, than losses. KEYS delivered profits in more months than SP500 index. KEYS was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -13.66% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. KEYS and SP500 index, both had periods of 6 consecutive profitable months.

Opportunity is missed by most people because it is dressed in overalls and looks like work.
-- Thomas Edison

KEYS is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in KEYS's volatility from 3 Oct, 2018 to 31 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that KEYS has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than KEYS. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than KEYS in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than KEYS.

On a general note (since you are interested in KEYS), three instruments that are extremely volatile are ICPT, NVCN and IX. They must all be evaluated prudently and investors are better off avoiding them at the moment.

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