Are you evaluating investing in KBAL? Avoid as it was among the worst performers

KBAL was among the worst performers today. On a longer term basis, investors in KIMBALL INTERNATIONAL INC made -0.0% per day. Friday's performance of -2.3% was a significant underperformance compared to it's daily average.

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KBAL showed a strong down trend over the last 3 months. During this period KBAL lost -17.24% and saw a maximum drawdown of -18.96%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +16.57%.

Trend

Monthly Performance

Alpha (outperformance)

Heatmap

Volatility

Return distribution

KBAL has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 2 Oct, 2017. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, KBAL outperformed the SP500 index on 52% days.

During the last three months KBAL was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.29% per day. It's best return during this period (of +2.89%) was on Tuesday, 30 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.73%) was on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 24 Sep, 2018 and went on till 2 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -7.53% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 30 Oct, 2018 and ended on 2 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +4.1% to investors.

KBAL had 2 profitable and 10 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, KBAL underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. KBAL was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Feb 2018, returned -11.52% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. KBAL had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Apr 2018 to Jul 2018) during which period it delivered -6.92%. It is interesting to note that both KBAL and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"As in roulette, same is true of the stock trader, who will find that the expense of trading weights the dice heavily against him.

KBAL is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in KBAL's volatility from 11 Sep, 2018 to 9 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that KBAL has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect KBAL to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes KBAL a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than KBAL. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than KBAL in your portfolio. KBAL usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

On a general note (since you are interested in KBAL), two mid cap instruments that deserve special mention are TWTR and LULU. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.