JUPAI HOLDINGS LTD (FOREIGN)

4.66 +0.11 (+2.42%) Sell

Don't go profit booking on JP now, it delivered a decent return

13 min read

JUPAI HOLDINGS LTD (Foreign) outperformed on Tuesday. It surged by +2.42% to close at 4.66. It is currently trading -81% below it's 52 week high of 25.04.

[Themes containing JP]

JP showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period JP fell by -57.67% and saw a maximum drawdown of -58.67%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +57.67%.

Trend

JP has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 20 Oct, 2017 to 10 Dec, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, JP underperformed the SP500 index on 52% days.

JP returned losses on 57% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -1.08% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -33.66%, during this period, on Friday, 7 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 4 profitable days, which started on 28 Nov, 2018 and went on till 3 Dec, 2018. This bullish trend returned +7.4% to investors.

During the last year JP had 4 profitable months and 8 loss making months. JP returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. JP was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Dec 2018, returned -48.85% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. JP had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Jun 2018 to Oct 2018) during which period it delivered -94.68%. It is interesting to note that both JP and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Money never made a man happy yet, nor will it. The more a man has, the more he wants. Instead of filling a vacuum, it makes one.
-- Benjamin Franklin

JP is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in JP's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 30 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that JP has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect JP to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes JP a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than JP. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than JP in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than JP.

On a general note (since you are interested in JP), three instruments that deserve special mention are NIHD, TNDM and NFEC. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.

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