61.75 +1.28 (+2.07%) Sell

JOUT does a dead cat bounce, it's still too early to buy into it

13 min read

JOUT delivered stellar performance today. On a longer term basis, investors in JOHNSON OUTDOORS INC made -0.04% per day. Friday's performance of +2.07% was a significant outperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing JOUT]

JOUT showed a strong down trend over the last 3 months. During this period JOUT returned -37.37% and saw a maximum drawdown of -38.63%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +37.37%.


JOUT has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 21 Aug, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, JOUT outperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.

JOUT returned losses on 56% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.71% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -11.35%, during this period, on Friday, 7 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 2 Oct, 2018 and went on till 8 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -13.78% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 12 Oct, 2018 and ended on 17 Oct, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +4.61% to investors.

On monthly basis, JOUT delivered profits and losses in equal number of months. JOUT delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. JOUT significantly outperformed SP500 index in Aug 2018, when it returned +24.93% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. JOUT had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 5 straight months during the last year.

If you would be wealthy, think of saving as well as getting.
-- Benjamin Franklin

JOUT is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in JOUT's volatility from 1 Oct, 2018 to 7 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that JOUT has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than JOUT. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than JOUT in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than JOUT.

On a general note (since you are interested in JOUT), two large cap instruments that deserve special mention are MSFT and AMZN. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.

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