JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC (FOREIGN)

10.8 -0.19 (-1.73%) Sell

JHX investors hurt by serious losses

13 min read

JHX is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it today. On a longer term basis, investors in JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC (Foreign) made +0.02% per day. Friday's performance of -1.73% was a underperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing JHX]

Buy-and-Hold investors in JHX experienced a maximum drawdown of -30.45% over the last three months. It fell by -29.37% during this strong bearish trending period. There were no long signals during this period, where the short signal generated good profits of +29.37% for investors.

Trend

JHX has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 24 Aug, 2016 to 10 Dec, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, JHX underperformed the SP500 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days JHX underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months JHX was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.51% per day. It's best return during this period (of +4.76%) was on Wednesday, 7 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -15.31%) was on Thursday, 8 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 5 profitable days, which started on 23 Nov, 2018 and went on till 29 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend returned +8.62% to investors.

During the last year JHX had 4 profitable months and 8 loss making months. JHX returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. JHX was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -13.23% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. JHX had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both JHX and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"The way to become rich is to put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket.

JHX is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in JHX's volatility from 9 Oct, 2018 to 8 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that JHX has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect JHX to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes JHX a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than JHX. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than JHX in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than JHX.

Based on your interest in JHX you may find it interesting to know that ECYT has shown remarkable performance this year and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.

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