HUNT J B TRANSPORT SERVICES INC

93.68 +1.0 (+1.07%) Sell

Joy for JBHT investors as it shows marginal outperformance

13 min read

HUNT J B TRANSPORT SERVICES INC outperformed the broader market on Monday. It increased by +1.07% to close at 93.68. On a day when the overall market breadth was 34%, it closed higher than 10% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0191%.

[Themes containing JBHT]

Buy-and-Hold investors in JBHT experienced a maximum drawdown of -24.88% over the last three months. It delivered -24.08% during this strong bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +17.77%.

Trend

JBHT has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 14 Jan, 2016 to 30 May, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, JBHT outperformed the SP500 index on 53% days.

During the last three months JBHT was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.42% per day. It's best return during this period (of +2.78%) was on Thursday, 6 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.17%) was on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 5 losing days, which started on 8 Nov, 2018 and ended on 14 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -5.36% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw JBHT's investors making profits in 4 months and incurring losses in 8 months. JBHT was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. JBHT was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Dec 2018, returned -12.85% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. JBHT had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Sep 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -26.84%. It is interesting to note that both JBHT and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

It's pointless to set goals if you are not going to try to hit them.
-- Don Connelly

JBHT is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in JBHT's volatility from 5 Oct, 2018 to 7 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that JBHT has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

JBHT has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, JBHT must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than JBHT.

On a general note (since you are interested in JBHT), two instruments that deserve special mention are DFBG and TPNL. They have significantly outperformed the overall market this year.

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