74.82 -0.34 (-0.45%) Sell

Don't even consider investing in IX now, it is a high risk investment

13 min read

ORIX CORP (Foreign) significantly underperformed on Tuesday. It fell by -0.45% to close at 74.82. On a day when the overall market breadth was 34%, it closed higher than 95% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at +0.01%.

[Themes containing IX]

IX showed a bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period IX fell by -8.33% and saw a maximum drawdown of -11.41%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +1.25%.


IX has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 1 Feb, 2016 to 6 Sep, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 14 days, IX underperformed the SP500 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days IX underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months IX was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.12% per day. It's best return during this period (of +4.23%) was on Monday, 29 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.03%) was on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 5 losing days, which started on 18 Oct, 2018 and ended on 24 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -6.99% of investor capital.

During the last year IX had 6 profitable months and 6 loss making months. IX returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. IX significantly outperformed SP500 index in Jan 2018, when it returned +10.67% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. IX had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 2 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both IX and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Money often costs too much.
-- Ralph Waldo Emerson

IX is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in IX's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that IX has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that IX is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than IX. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than IX in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than IX.

Based on your interest in IX you may find it interesting to know that PTC, AAXN and BURL are small caps that have all shown remarkable performance and qualify to be on every investor's watchlist.

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