INGREDION INC

95.44 -1.01 (-1.06%) Sell

INGR is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

INGREDION INC delivered massive losses today. It delivered -1.06% to close at 95.44. It's recent 5 day performance has been -0.77%, -2.22%, -2.54%, -2.98% and +0.65%.

[Themes containing INGR]

INGR showed a bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period INGR delivered -7.89% and saw a maximum drawdown of -12.18%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in INGR till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.

Trend

INGR has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 7 Sep, 2016 to 14 Aug, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, INGR underperformed the SP500 index on 47% days. Which indicates that on days INGR underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months INGR delivered profits on 51% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a loss. It's best return during this period (of +4.88%) was on Thursday, 25 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -7.65%) was on Tuesday, 23 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 5 losing days, which started on 4 Dec, 2018 and ended on 11 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -9.57% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw INGR's investors making profits in 3 months and incurring losses in 9 months. INGR was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. INGR was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Feb 2018, returned -9.05% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. INGR had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 7 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Aug 2018) during which period it delivered -30.68%.

"I'm involved in the stock market, which is fun and, sometimes, very painful.

INGR is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in INGR's volatility from 21 Sep, 2018 to 2 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that INGR has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect INGR to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes INGR a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than INGR. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than INGR in your portfolio. INGR usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

On a general note (since you are interested in INGR), three instruments that are extremely volatile are NVCN, OPNT and IMTE. They must all be evaluated prudently and investors are better off avoiding them at the moment.

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