15.56 -0.55 (-3.53%) Sell

Don't even consider investing in IGT now, it is a risky investment

13 min read

INTERNATIONAL GAME TECHNOLOGY PLC (Foreign) ranked among the worst performers on Friday. It delivered -3.53% to close at 15.56. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 71% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0191%.

[Themes containing IGT]

IGT showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period IGT delivered -21.69% and saw a maximum drawdown of -26.5%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +21.69%.


IGT has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 18 Nov, 2016 to 12 Nov, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, IGT underperformed the SP500 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days IGT underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months IGT was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.31% per day. It's best return during this period (of +15.87%) was on Wednesday, 31 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -10.12%) was on Friday, 9 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 4 losing days, which started on 2 Nov, 2018 and ended on 7 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -9.88% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw IGT's investors making profits in 4 months and incurring losses in 8 months. IGT was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. IGT was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Aug 2018, returned -16.77% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. IGT had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Aug 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -45.26%. It is interesting to note that both IGT and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Many people take no care of their money till they come nearly to the end of it, and others do just the same with their time.
-- Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

IGT is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in IGT's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that IGT has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than IGT. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than IGT in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than IGT.

Based on your interest in IGT you may find it interesting to know that LMB has delivered similar performance as IGT and can be considered as an alternative investment candidate (to IGT).

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