ICON PLC (FOREIGN)

138.22 -0.83 (-0.6%) Buy

Don't go shopping for ICLR now, it is underperforming the market

13 min read

ICLR was among the worst performers today. On a longer term basis, investors in ICON PLC (Foreign) made +0.12% per day. Tuesday's performance of -0.6% was a underperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing ICLR]

ICLR showed a bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period ICLR delivered -6.7% and saw a maximum drawdown of -16.78%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in ICLR till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.

Trend

ICLR has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 12 May, 2016 to 28 Sep, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, ICLR outperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.

ICLR returned losses on 56% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.09% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -6.95%, during this period, on Wednesday, 24 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 8 losing days, which started on 8 Nov, 2018 and ended on 19 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -11.48% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw ICLR's investors making profits in 9 months and incurring losses in 3 months. During the last year, ICLR delivered profits in more months than SP500 index. ICLR significantly outperformed SP500 index in May 2018, when it returned +9.65% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. ICLR had a longer winning streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It went up in 8 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Sep 2018) during which period it delivered +39.28%.

The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator.
-- Ben Graham

ICLR is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ICLR's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 26 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ICLR has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than ICLR. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than ICLR in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ICLR.

On a general note (since you are interested in ICLR), TNDM has performed really well this year and deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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