65.9 -1.68 (-2.54%) Sell

ICFI is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

ICFI was among the worst performers today. On a longer term basis, investors in ICF INTERNATIONAL, INC. made -0.07% per day. Monday's performance of -2.54% was a significant underperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing ICFI]

ICFI showed a strong down trend over the last 3 months. During this period ICFI returned -13.0% and saw a maximum drawdown of -13.8%. There were 2 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +5.68% to investors.


ICFI has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 4 Sep, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, ICFI outperformed the SP500 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days ICFI outperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the SP500 index.

ICFI returned losses on 60% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.2% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -7.21%, during this period, on Monday, 5 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 13 Nov, 2018 and went on till 20 Nov, 2018. The trend delivered -9.06% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 21 Nov, 2018 and ended on 28 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +5.16% to investors.

On monthly basis, ICFI delivered profits in more months over the last year, than losses. ICFI delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. ICFI significantly outperformed SP500 index in Apr 2018, when it returned +12.68% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. ICFI had a longer winning streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It went up in 7 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Aug 2018) during which period it delivered +41.08%. It is interesting to note that both ICFI and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.

ICFI is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in ICFI's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 3 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ICFI has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than ICFI. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than ICFI in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ICFI.

Based on your interest in ICFI you may find it interesting to know that AMD, ABMD and RHT are mid caps that have all shown remarkable performance and qualify to be on every investor's watchlist.

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