4.32 -0.26 (-6.09%) Sell

HYGS is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

HYDROGENICS CORP (Foreign) ranked among the worst performers today. It returned -6.09% to close at 4.32. During the last week it returned -7.69% and saw a maximum drawdown of -10.19% before bouncing back.

[Themes containing HYGS]

HYGS is currently in a down trend. The current bearish signal has generated a profit of +29.41% for investors in the last three months.


HYGS has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 15 Apr, 2016. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, HYGS underperformed the SP500 index on 52% days.

During the last three months HYGS was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.67% per day. It's best return during this period (of +6.62%) was on Thursday, 20 Sep, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -14.72%) was on Friday, 2 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 3 Oct, 2018 and went on till 8 Oct, 2018. The bullish trend returned +8.64% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 16 Nov, 2018 and ended on 23 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -9.64% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, HYGS delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. HYGS delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. HYGS significantly outperformed SP500 index in Sep 2018, when it returned +26.09% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. HYGS had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from May 2018 to Aug 2018) during which period it delivered -32.06%.

Trading mastery is a state of complete acceptance of probability, not a state of fight it.
-- Yvan Byeajee

HYGS is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in HYGS's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 30 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that HYGS has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that HYGS is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than HYGS. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than HYGS in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than HYGS.

Based on your interest in HYGS you may find it interesting to know that ARC and TLYS have both performed similar to HYGS and can be considered by investors as alternative investment options.

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