HOST HOTELS & RESORTS, INC.

17.78 -0.07 (-0.39%) Sell

Don't invest in HST now, it is a high risk investment

13 min read

HOST HOTELS & RESORTS, INC. delivered massive losses on Thursday. It fell by -0.39% to close at 17.78. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 18% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0002%.

[Themes containing HST]

HST showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period HST fell by -17.57% and saw a maximum drawdown of -17.57%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +17.25%.

Trend

HST has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 4 Jan, 2017 to 5 Mar, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 9 days, HST underperformed the SP500 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days HST underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months HST was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.3% per day. It's best return during this period (of +3.05%) was on Monday, 5 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.9%) was on Tuesday, 6 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 5 losing days, which started on 7 Dec, 2018 and ended on 13 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -5.79% of investor capital.

During the last year HST had 6 profitable months and 6 loss making months. HST returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. HST was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Feb 2018, returned -10.6% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. HST had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Sep 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -17.87%. It is interesting to note that both HST and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

George Soros is one of the few characters from the world of finance who deserves to be called larger-than-life.
-- Gary Weiss

HST is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in HST's volatility from 18 Sep, 2018 to 6 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that HST has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect HST to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes HST a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

HST has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, HST must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than HST.

On a general note (since you are interested in HST), ABMD is a mid cap that deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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