28.12 +0.01 (+0.04%) Sell

HGV does a dead cat bounce, it's still too early to buy into it

13 min read

HILTON GRAND VACATIONS INC. was among the best performers on Friday. It returned +0.04% to close at 28.12. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 8% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0191%.

[Themes containing HGV]

HGV showed a strong down trend over the last 3 months. During this period HGV lost -13.13% and saw a maximum drawdown of -21.12%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +13.13%.


HGV has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 14 Mar, 2018. Over the last 1 year 11 months and 10 days, HGV underperformed the SP500 index on 52% days.

During the last three months HGV was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.16% per day. It's best return during this period (of +18.24%) was on Thursday, 1 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -10.4%) was on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 17 Sep, 2018 and went on till 21 Sep, 2018. The bullish trend returned +2.67% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 1 Oct, 2018 and ended on 5 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -8.02% of investor capital.

HGV had 5 profitable and 7 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, HGV underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. HGV significantly outperformed SP500 index in Nov 2018, when it returned +19.32% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. HGV and SP500 index, both had periods of 2 consecutive losing months. It is interesting to note that both HGV and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Everyone has the brainpower to follow the stock market. If you made it through fifth-grade math, you can do it .
-- Peter Lynch

HGV is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in HGV's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 1 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that HGV has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that HGV is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than HGV. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than HGV in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than HGV.

On a general note (since you are interested in HGV), AYTU has performed really well and deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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