55.81 -1.22 (-2.19%) Sell

HFC investors dump it

13 min read

HOLLYFRONTIER CORP ranked among the worst performers on Thursday. It fell by -2.19% to close at 55.81. It is currently trading -31% below it's 52 week high of 81.65.

[Themes containing HFC]

Buy-and-Hold investors in HFC experienced a maximum drawdown of -22.99% over the last three months. It fell by -20.71% during this strong bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +10.36%.


HFC has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 2 Jun, 2017 to 1 Jun, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 9 days, HFC outperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.

During the last three months HFC was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.33% per day. It's best return during this period (of +6.61%) was on Wednesday, 31 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -7.03%) was on Friday, 19 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 5 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +8.34%) started on 20 Sep, 2018 and went on till 26 Sep, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -12.56%) started on 3 Dec, 2018 and went on till 10 Dec, 2018.

During the last year HFC had 4 profitable months and 8 loss making months. HFC returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. HFC significantly outperformed SP500 index in May 2018, when it returned +27.17% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. HFC had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Aug 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -27.36%. It is interesting to note that both HFC and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Wealth after all is a relative thing since he that has little and wants less is richer than he that has much and wants more.
-- Charles Caleb Colton

HFC is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in HFC's volatility from 18 Sep, 2018 to 5 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that HFC has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

Investors trading in HFC derivatives at this moment can consider 'Protective Collar' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

HFC has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, HFC must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than HFC.

On a general note (since you are interested in HFC), AYTU has performed really well and deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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