75.1 -2.55 (-3.4%) Sell

GWR is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

GWR has destroyed investor wealth today. On a longer term basis, investors in GENESEE & WYOMING INC made +0.01% per day. Friday's performance of -3.4% was a underperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing GWR]

Buy-and-Hold investors in GWR experienced a maximum drawdown of -19.26% over the last three months. It delivered -15.28% during this strong bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +6.46%.


GWR has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 19 Jan, 2016 to 9 Dec, 2016. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, GWR outperformed the SP500 index on 56% days.

During the last three months GWR was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.24% per day. It's best return during this period (of +5.27%) was on Tuesday, 30 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -6.52%) was on Wednesday, 10 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 losing days, which started on 17 Oct, 2018 and ended on 24 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -13.54% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw GWR's investors making profits in 8 months and incurring losses in 4 months. During the last year, GWR and SP500 index had the same number of profitable months. GWR was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -14.43% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. GWR had a longer winning streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It went up in 7 straight months (from Mar 2018 to Sep 2018) during which period it delivered +31.72%.

"Confronted with a challenge to distill the secret of sound investment into three words, we venture the motto, Margin of Safety.

GWR is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in GWR's volatility from 28 Sep, 2018 to 30 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that GWR has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect GWR to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes GWR a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than GWR. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than GWR in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than GWR.

Based on your interest in GWR you may find it interesting to know that AMRH has shown remarkable performance and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.

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