W R GRACE & CO

61.22 -0.17 (-0.28%) Buy

Waiting to invest in GRA? Look for alternatives because it delivered lacklustre performance

13 min read

W R GRACE & CO delivered lacklustre performance on Friday. It delivered -0.28% to close at 61.22. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 67% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0191%.

[Themes containing GRA]

GRA showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period GRA delivered -15.11% and saw a maximum drawdown of -18.6%. There were 2 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +3.85% to investors.

Trend

GRA has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 15 Jan, 2016 to 3 Dec, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, GRA underperformed the SP500 index on 52% days.

During the last three months GRA was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.25% per day. It's best return during this period (of +3.59%) was on Wednesday, 28 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.94%) was on Tuesday, 9 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 5 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +2.53%) started on 17 Sep, 2018 and went on till 21 Sep, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -6.36%) started on 17 Oct, 2018 and went on till 23 Oct, 2018.

The last 12 months saw GRA's investors making profits in 6 months and incurring losses in 6 months. GRA was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. GRA significantly outperformed SP500 index in Apr 2018, when it returned +13.56% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. GRA had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 4 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both GRA and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Traditionally, the sample is always better than the stock you deliver to the store.
-- Calvin Klein

GRA is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in GRA's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that GRA has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect GRA to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes GRA a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than GRA. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than GRA in your portfolio. GRA usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

Based on your interest in GRA you may find it interesting to know that NFEC has shown remarkable performance this year and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.

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