GREEN PLAINS INC.

14.83 -0.92 (-6.2%) Sell

Looking to invest in GPRE? Avoid at the moment as it ranked among the worst performers

13 min read

GREEN PLAINS INC. ranked among the worst performers on Thursday. It fell by -6.2% to close at 14.83. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 80% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0002%.

[Themes containing GPRE]

GPRE showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period GPRE fell by -15.98% and saw a maximum drawdown of -22.15%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +1.43%.

Trend

GPRE has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 16 Dec, 2016 to 25 Jul, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 9 days, GPRE underperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.

GPRE was profitable on 50% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.21% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +17.89%, during this period, on Thursday, 11 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 4 profitable days, which started on 30 Oct, 2018 and went on till 2 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend returned +7.75% to investors.

During the last year GPRE had 5 profitable months and 7 loss making months. GPRE returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. GPRE significantly outperformed SP500 index in Apr 2018, when it returned +15.17% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. GPRE had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Sep 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -17.7%. It is interesting to note that both GPRE and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

The stock market is a discounter of all known information.
-- Kenneth Fisher

GPRE is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in GPRE's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 11 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that GPRE has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

GPRE has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, GPRE must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than GPRE.

On a general note (since you are interested in GPRE), NSPR has performed really well and deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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