11.07 +0.14 (+1.28%) Sell

GPK investors considering profit booking at current levels

13 min read

GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO outperformed on Friday. It surged by +1.28% to close at 11.07. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 14% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0191%.

[Themes containing GPK]

GPK is currently in a bearish trend. Over the last three months 2 bearish signals have generated a profit of +15.53% for investors.


GPK has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 1 Sep, 2016 to 23 Oct, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, GPK underperformed the SP500 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days GPK underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

GPK returned losses on 58% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.38% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -14.04%, during this period, on Tuesday, 23 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 7 losing days, which started on 17 Oct, 2018 and ended on 25 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -20.57% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw GPK's investors making profits in 5 months and incurring losses in 7 months. GPK was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. GPK was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -21.64% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. GPK had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Jul 2018 to Oct 2018) during which period it delivered -25.66%.

Stock market bubbles don't grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality, but reality as distorted by a misconception.
-- George Soros

GPK is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in GPK's volatility from 21 Sep, 2018 to 26 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that GPK has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect GPK to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes GPK a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than GPK. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than GPK in your portfolio. GPK usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

Based on your interest in GPK you may find it interesting to know that AMZN and V are both large caps that have shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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