55.26 -0.69 (-1.25%) Sell

Doubt in the minds of GOOS investors as it destroyed investor wealth

13 min read

CANADA GOOSE HOLDINGS INC. (Foreign) was among the worst performers today. It fell by -1.25% to close at 55.26. During the last week it fell by -19.19% and saw a maximum drawdown of -19.19%.

[Themes containing GOOS]

Buy-and-Hold investors in GOOS experienced a maximum drawdown of -26.99% over the last three months. It fell by -6.35% during this bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +14.38%.


GOOS has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 27 Mar, 2017 to 16 Nov, 2018. Over the last 1 year and 9 months, GOOS outperformed the SP500 index on 54% days.

GOOS returned losses on 54% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.02% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +10.02%, during this period, on Wednesday, 14 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 5 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +21.21%) started on 29 Oct, 2018 and went on till 2 Nov, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -22.19%) started on 4 Dec, 2018 and went on till 11 Dec, 2018.

During the last year GOOS had 8 profitable months and 4 loss making months. Profitable number of months of GOOS and SP500 index were the same. GOOS significantly outperformed SP500 index in Jun 2018, when it returned +39.95% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. GOOS had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 4 straight months during the last year.

"You and I come by road or rail, but economists travel on infrastructure.

GOOS is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in GOOS's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 14 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that GOOS has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

Investors trading in GOOS derivatives at this moment can consider 'Covered Call' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than GOOS. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than GOOS in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than GOOS.

On a general note (since you are interested in GOOS), two instruments that deserve special mention are AYTU and DLPH. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.

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