GRACO INC

40.51 -1.2 (-2.97%) Sell

GGG is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

GRACO INC has destroyed investor wealth on Monday. It fell by -2.97% to close at 40.51. It is currently trading -17% below it's 52 week high of 49.07.

[Themes containing GGG]

Buy-and-Hold investors in GGG experienced a maximum drawdown of -22.19% over the last three months. It fell by -15.67% during this strong bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +10.87%.

Trend

GGG has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 11 Oct, 2016 to 23 Jan, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, GGG outperformed the SP500 index on 53% days.

During the last three months GGG was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.25% per day. It's best return during this period (of +6.8%) was on Thursday, 25 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.84%) was on Wednesday, 10 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 7 losing days, which started on 3 Oct, 2018 and ended on 11 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -15.03% of investor capital.

During the last year GGG had 6 profitable months and 6 loss making months. GGG returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. GGG was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -11.23% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. GGG had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 2 straight months during the last year.

Never invest emergency savings in the stock market.
-- Suze Orman

GGG is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in GGG's volatility from 28 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that GGG has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than GGG. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than GGG in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than GGG.

On a general note (since you are interested in GGG), two instruments that deserve special mention are DFBG and TPNL. They have significantly outperformed the overall market this year.

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