44.54 -0.47 (-1.04%) Sell

GEF is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

GREIF INC was among the worst performers on Friday. It fell by -1.04% to close at 44.54 which is it's 52 week low, down -29% from it's 52 week high.

[Themes containing GEF]

GEF showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period GEF fell by -21.11% and saw a maximum drawdown of -24.28%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +13.46%.


GEF has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 22 Feb, 2016 to 7 Dec, 2017. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, GEF outperformed the SP500 index on 52% days.

During the last three months GEF was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.35% per day. It's best return during this period (of +4.27%) was on Thursday, 25 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -9.84%) was on Thursday, 6 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 7 losing days, which started on 21 Sep, 2018 and ended on 1 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -10.45% of investor capital.

During the last year GEF had 4 profitable months and 8 loss making months. GEF returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. GEF was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Dec 2018, returned -13.13% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. GEF had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Jan 2018 to Mar 2018) during which period it delivered -16.63%. It is interesting to note that both GEF and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"There are two kinds of investors, be they large or small: those who don't know where the market is headed, and those who don't know that they don't know. Then again, there is a third type of investor -the investment professional, who indeed knows that he or she doesn't know, but whose livelihood depends upon appearing to know.

GEF is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in GEF's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 7 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that GEF has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect GEF to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes GEF a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than GEF. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than GEF in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than GEF.

Based on your interest in GEF you may find it interesting to know that TYHT, AMRH and DLPH have all shown remarkable performance and qualify to be on every investor's watchlist.

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