GREENBRIER COMPANIES INC

40.52 -0.63 (-1.55%) Sell

GBX is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

GBX was among the worst performers today. On a longer term basis, investors in GREENBRIER COMPANIES INC made +0.1% per day. Friday's performance of -1.55% was a significant underperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing GBX]

GBX showed a strong down trend over the last 3 months. During this period GBX returned -31.55% and saw a maximum drawdown of -37.08%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +25.54%.

Trend

GBX has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 9 Oct, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, GBX underperformed the SP500 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days GBX underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months GBX was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.56% per day. It's best return during this period (of +4.11%) was on Thursday, 1 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -9.26%) was on Friday, 26 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 2 Oct, 2018 and went on till 9 Oct, 2018. The bullish trend returned +7.22% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 23 Oct, 2018 and ended on 29 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -20.18% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, GBX delivered profits in more months over the last year, than losses. GBX delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. GBX was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -20.86% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. GBX had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 5 straight months during the last year.

"Experience taught me a few things. One is to listen to your gut, no matter how good something sounds on paper. The second is that you're generally better off sticking with what you know. And the third is that sometimes your best investments are the ones you don't make.

GBX is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in GBX's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that GBX has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect GBX to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes GBX a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than GBX. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than GBX in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than GBX.

On a general note (since you are interested in GBX), two large cap instruments that deserve special mention are V and MSFT. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.

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