FORWARD AIR CORP

55.22 -0.5 (-0.9%) Sell

FWRD investors incur serious losses

13 min read

FORWARD AIR CORP delivered massive losses today. It delivered -0.9% to close at 55.22. During the last week it delivered -6.25% and saw a maximum drawdown of -6.25%.

[Themes containing FWRD]

FWRD is currently in a bearish trend. Over the last three months 2 bearish signals have generated a profit of +9.49% for investors.

Trend

FWRD has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 26 Oct, 2016 to 28 Sep, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 14 days, FWRD outperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.

During the last three months FWRD was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.33% per day. It's best return during this period (of +3.54%) was on Friday, 28 Sep, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -6.27%) was on Thursday, 25 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 7 profitable days, which started on 21 Nov, 2018 and went on till 30 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend returned +6.11% to investors.

The last 12 months saw FWRD's investors making profits in 7 months and incurring losses in 5 months. FWRD was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. FWRD was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -16.44% compared to -7.75% returned by SP500 index in Dec 2018. FWRD had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both FWRD and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

I never dreamed about success, I worked for it.
-- Estee Lauder

FWRD is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in FWRD's volatility from 20 Sep, 2018 to 26 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that FWRD has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect FWRD to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes FWRD a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than FWRD. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than FWRD in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than FWRD.

Based on your interest in FWRD you may find it interesting to know that TYHT has shown remarkable performance and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.

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