27.34 -1.23 (-4.51%) Sell

FND is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

FLOOR & DECOR HOLDINGS, INC. was among the worst performers today. It returned -4.51% to close at 27.34. It's recent 5 day performance has been -2.52%, -0.64%, -2.35%, -6.14% and -0.06%.

[Themes containing FND]

FND showed a strong down trend over the last 3 months. During this period FND returned -21.14% and saw a maximum drawdown of -31.91%. There were 3 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +11.35% to investors.


FND has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 5 Apr, 2018. Over the last 1 year and 8 months, FND underperformed the SP500 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days FND underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months FND was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.29% per day. It's best return during this period (of +24.04%) was on Thursday, 1 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -6.14%) was on Friday, 7 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 30 Oct, 2018 and went on till 2 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +29.99% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 4 Dec, 2018 and ended on 13 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -22.17% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, FND delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. FND delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. FND significantly outperformed SP500 index in Nov 2018, when it returned +29.52% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. FND had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Jul 2018 to Oct 2018) during which period it delivered -60.47%. It is interesting to note that both FND and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"Well, I think that there's a very thin dividing line between success and failure. And I think if you start a business without financial backing, you're likely to go the wrong side of that dividing line.

FND is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in FND's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 20 Sep, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that FND has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that FND is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than FND. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than FND in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than FND.

Based on your interest in FND you may find it interesting to know that SQ, ABMD and TWTR are mid caps that have all shown remarkable performance and qualify to be on every investor's watchlist.

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