FLY LEASING LTD (FOREIGN)

12.19 -0.15 (-1.22%) Sell

FLY is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

FLY LEASING LTD (Foreign) is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it today. It fell by -1.22% to close at 12.19. It's recent 5 day performance has been +0.82%, -0.41%, +1.57%, -1.14% and +0.66%.

[Themes containing FLY]

FLY showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period FLY fell by -15.7% and saw a maximum drawdown of -17.35%. There were 2 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +12.7% to investors.

Trend

FLY has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 7 Mar, 2016 to 28 Feb, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, FLY underperformed the SP500 index on 52% days.

FLY returned losses on 65% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.27% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -3.15%, during this period, on Monday, 12 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 8 losing days, which started on 15 Nov, 2018 and ended on 27 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -7.16% of investor capital.

During the last year FLY had 5 profitable months and 7 loss making months. FLY returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. FLY significantly outperformed SP500 index in May 2018, when it returned +18.8% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. FLY had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Sep 2018 to Nov 2018) during which period it delivered -18.93%.

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FLY is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in FLY's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 30 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that FLY has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than FLY. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than FLY in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than FLY.

On a general note (since you are interested in FLY), if you are an investor in EPIX, you need to be extra careful (consider limiting your exposure or diversifying) as it is extremely unpredictable and therefore risky.

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