FLOWERS FOODS INC

19.3 +0.25 (+1.31%) Buy

Don't cash in on FLO now, it delivered great returns

13 min read

FLO outperformed today. On a longer term basis, investors in FLOWERS FOODS INC made 0.0% per day. Tuesday's performance of +1.31% was a outperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing FLO]

FLO showed a bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period FLO delivered -6.76% and saw a maximum drawdown of -10.77%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +2.56%.

Trend

FLO has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 13 Jan, 2016 to 3 Oct, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, FLO underperformed the SP500 index on 46% days. Which indicates that on days FLO underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

FLO returned losses on 54% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.1% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +5.25%, during this period, on Friday, 9 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 5 losing days, which started on 13 Sep, 2018 and ended on 19 Sep, 2018. This bearish trend lost -6.95% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw FLO's investors making profits in 7 months and incurring losses in 5 months. FLO was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. FLO was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, May 2018, returned -10.22% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. FLO had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 4 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both FLO and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Financial peace isn't the acquisition of stuff. It's learning to live on less than you make, so you can give money back and have money to invest. You can't win until you do this.
-- Dave Ramsey

FLO is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in FLO's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 9 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that FLO has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect FLO to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes FLO a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than FLO. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than FLO in your portfolio. FLO usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

On a general note (since you are interested in FLO), two instruments that have delivered similar performance as FLO are PWOD and HAL. They are suitable as good alternative investment candidates that can diversify your portfolio.

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