COMFORT SYSTEMS USA INC

46.52 -1.44 (-3.1%) Sell

Are you evaluating investing in FIX? Avoid as it ranked among the worst performers

13 min read

COMFORT SYSTEMS USA INC ranked among the worst performers on Friday. It lost -3.1% to close at 46.52. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 4% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0233%.

[Themes containing FIX]

FIX showed a strong down trend over the last 3 months. During this period FIX lost -18.81% and saw a maximum drawdown of -21.42%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in FIX till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.

Trend

FIX has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 8 Nov, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, FIX outperformed the SP500 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days FIX outperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months FIX was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.31% per day. It's best return during this period (of +6.3%) was on Friday, 26 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -6.36%) was on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 13 Sep, 2018 and went on till 19 Sep, 2018. The trend delivered -7.12% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 1 Nov, 2018 and ended on 8 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +10.3% to investors.

FIX had 5 profitable and 7 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, FIX underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. FIX significantly outperformed SP500 index in Jul 2018, when it returned +20.11% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. FIX had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Sep 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -18.29%. It is interesting to note that both FIX and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Wealth consists not in having great possessions, but in having few wants.
-- Epictetus

FIX is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in FIX's volatility from 11 Sep, 2018 to 30 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that FIX has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than FIX. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than FIX in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than FIX.

On a general note (since you are interested in FIX), three instruments that deserve special mention are AMRN, ECYT and HEAR. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.

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