24.84 +0.19 (+0.77%) Sell

FII investors considering profit booking at current levels

13 min read

FEDERATED INVESTORS INC was among the best performers today. It returned +0.77% to close at 24.84. During the last week it returned +2.05% and saw a maximum drawdown of -1.48% before bouncing back.

[Themes containing FII]

FII is currently in a down trend. The previous short signal in FII has not been profitable for investors in general. If you are short on FII at current levels please make sure that your allocation is limited and that your portfolio is well diversified.


FII has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, FII underperformed the SP500 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days FII underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months FII was mostly profitable and delivered on average +0.01% per day. It's best return during this period (of +8.84%) was on Friday, 26 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.04%) was on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 1 Oct, 2018 and went on till 8 Oct, 2018. The bullish trend returned +3.32% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 9 Oct, 2018 and ended on 12 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -10.33% of investor capital.

FII had 5 profitable and 7 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, FII underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. FII was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Apr 2018, returned -18.53% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. FII had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both FII and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

The difference between playing the stock market and the horses is that one of the horses must win.
-- Joey Adams

FII is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in FII's volatility from 28 Sep, 2018 to 26 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that FII has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect FII to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes FII a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than FII. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than FII in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than FII.

Based on your interest in FII you may find it interesting to know that PTC and ZBRA are both small caps that have shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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