FIBROGEN INC

39.55 +0.18 (+0.46%) Sell

Profit booking on the minds of FGEN investors as it performed better than the broader market

13 min read

FIBROGEN INC delivered stellar performance on Friday. It gained +0.46% to close at 39.55. It is currently trading -41% below it's 52 week high of 67.25.

[Themes containing FGEN]

Buy-and-Hold investors in FGEN experienced a maximum drawdown of -38.06% over the last three months. It lost -30.37% during this strong down trending period. There were no long signals during this period, where the short signal generated good profits of +30.37% for investors.

Trend

FGEN has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, FGEN outperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.

FGEN was profitable on 52% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.5% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -11.11%, during this period, on Monday, 29 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 4 Oct, 2018 and went on till 8 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -13.47% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 20 Nov, 2018 and ended on 26 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +5.84% to investors.

FGEN had 5 profitable and 7 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, FGEN underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. FGEN was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -27.17% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. FGEN had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Jul 2018 to Oct 2018) during which period it delivered -31.15%. It is interesting to note that both FGEN and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

A simple fact that is ard to learn is that the time to save money is when you have some.
-- Joe Moore

FGEN is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in FGEN's volatility from 28 Sep, 2018 to 24 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that FGEN has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than FGEN. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than FGEN in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than FGEN.

On a general note (since you are interested in FGEN), if you are evaluating FGEN as an investment candidate, then you should read about MGI which has delivered similar performance and can help diversify your portfolio.

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