PHOENIX NEW MEDIA LTD (FOREIGN)

3.32 -0.04 (-1.19%) Sell

Prayers for FENG investors as it was among the worst performers

13 min read

PHOENIX NEW MEDIA LTD (Foreign) was among the worst performers today. It delivered -1.19% to close at 3.32. During the last week it delivered -5.95% and saw a maximum drawdown of -6.21% before bouncing back.

[Themes containing FENG]

FENG is currently in a bearish trend. Over the last three months 3 bearish signals have generated a profit of +1.16% for investors.

Trend

FENG has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 21 Nov, 2017 to 13 Nov, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, FENG underperformed the SP500 index on 54% days.

During the last three months FENG was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.4% per day. It's best return during this period (of +11.18%) was on Thursday, 1 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -9.17%) was on Tuesday, 13 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 5 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +10.15%) started on 21 Nov, 2018 and went on till 28 Nov, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -14.18%) started on 4 Oct, 2018 and went on till 10 Oct, 2018.

The last 12 months saw FENG's investors making profits in 3 months and incurring losses in 9 months. FENG was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. FENG significantly outperformed SP500 index in May 2018, when it returned +35.38% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. FENG had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Jan 2018 to Apr 2018) during which period it delivered -43.16%. It is interesting to note that both FENG and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"Financial crises are like fireworks: they illuminate the sky even as they go pop.

FENG is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in FENG's volatility from 27 Sep, 2018 to 23 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that FENG has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than FENG. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than FENG in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than FENG.

On a general note (since you are interested in FENG), PRQR has performed really well this year and deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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