28.24 -0.14 (-0.49%) Buy

Don't buy FCPT now, it is underperforming the market

13 min read

FOUR CORNERS PROPERTY TRUST, INC. was among the worst performers on Friday. It fell by -0.49% to close at 28.24. It is currently trading +32% above it's 52 week low of 21.33 and is down only 0% from it's 52 week high.

[Themes containing FCPT]

FCPT showed a bullish trend over the last 3 months. During this period FCPT increased by +6.53% and saw a maximum drawdown of -6.26%. There were 2 long signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +1.13% to investors.


FCPT has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 11 Jan, 2016 to 26 Feb, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, FCPT underperformed the SP500 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days FCPT underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months FCPT was mostly profitable and delivered on average +0.11% per day. It's best return during this period (of +3.48%) was on Tuesday, 16 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.16%) was on Wednesday, 31 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 5 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +4.05%) started on 27 Nov, 2018 and went on till 3 Dec, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -3.55%) started on 13 Sep, 2018 and went on till 19 Sep, 2018.

During the last year FCPT had 9 profitable months and 3 loss making months. FCPT returned profits in more months than SP500 index. FCPT significantly outperformed SP500 index in Aug 2018, when it returned +8.19% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. FCPT and SP500 index, both had periods of 6 consecutive profitable months.

If you totally want to reduce risk, take no risk. Bury the money. Then you've got no risk at all.
-- Don Connelly

FCPT is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in FCPT's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 31 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that FCPT has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect FCPT to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes FCPT a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than FCPT. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than FCPT in your portfolio. FCPT usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

Based on your interest in FCPT you may find it interesting to know that NFEC and TPNL have both shown remarkable performance this year and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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