16.99 -0.1 (-0.59%) Sell

Looking to invest in FBR? Avoid at the moment as it has destroyed investor wealth

13 min read

FBR has destroyed investor wealth today. On a longer term basis, investors in FIBRIA CELULOSE S.A. (Foreign) made +0.04% per day. Friday's performance of -0.59% was a underperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing FBR]

FBR showed a bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period FBR fell by -8.06% and saw a maximum drawdown of -14.2%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +8.06%.


FBR has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 5 Aug, 2016 to 14 Mar, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, FBR outperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.

During the last three months FBR delivered profits on 57% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a loss. It's best return during this period (of +2.33%) was on Wednesday, 14 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -8.7%) was on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 5 profitable days, which started on 27 Nov, 2018 and went on till 3 Dec, 2018. This bullish trend returned +5.69% to investors.

During the last year FBR had 7 profitable months and 5 loss making months. FBR returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. FBR significantly outperformed SP500 index in Jan 2018, when it returned +16.37% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. FBR had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 4 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both FBR and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"Great investment opportunities come around when excellent companies are surrounded by unusual circumstances that cause the stock to be misappraised.

FBR is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in FBR's volatility from 23 Oct, 2018 to 31 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that FBR has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect FBR to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes FBR a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

FBR has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, FBR must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than FBR.

Based on your interest in FBR you may find it interesting to know that ZBRA is a small cap that has shown remarkable performance and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.

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