70.57 -3.54 (-5.02%) Sell

Prayers for EXPD investors as it ranked among the worst performers

13 min read

EXPEDITORS INTERNATIONAL OF WASHINGTON INC ranked among the worst performers on Friday. It delivered -5.02% to close at 70.57. It is currently trading +16% above it's 52 week low of 60.36 and is down only -9% from it's 52 week high.

[Themes containing EXPD]

EXPD is currently in a bearish trend. Over the last three months trading short signals has not been a profitable strategy for EXPD's investors in general. However, this strategy had significantly lower risk when compared to Buy-and-Hold investing (which returned -7.01%). It is therefore better to tread with caution in the current downtrend by limiting your allocation to EXPD.


EXPD has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 26 May, 2017 to 12 Jun, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, EXPD outperformed the SP500 index on 54% days.

During the last three months EXPD was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.1% per day. It's best return during this period (of +3.67%) was on Tuesday, 6 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.02%) was on Friday, 7 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 losing days, which started on 4 Oct, 2018 and ended on 11 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -9.4% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw EXPD's investors making profits in 6 months and incurring losses in 6 months. EXPD was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. EXPD significantly outperformed SP500 index in May 2018, when it returned +16.63% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. EXPD had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 2 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both EXPD and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Making money from enforcing patents is no more wrong than investing in preferred stock.
-- Nathan Myhrvold

EXPD is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in EXPD's volatility from 12 Sep, 2018 to 7 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that EXPD has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect EXPD to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes EXPD a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than EXPD. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than EXPD in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than EXPD.

Based on your interest in EXPD you may find it interesting to know that ESXB has delivered similar performance as EXPD and can be considered as an alternative investment candidate (to EXPD).

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