EXPRESS SCRIPTS HOLDING CO.

98.22 -0.72 (-0.74%) Buy

ESRX investors herd to book profits while the going is good

13 min read

EXPRESS SCRIPTS HOLDING CO. delivered massive losses today. It lost -0.74% to close at 98.22. During the last week it returned +2.3% and saw a maximum drawdown of -0.74% before bouncing back.

[Themes containing ESRX]

ESRX is currently in a up trend. The current bullish signal has generated a profit of +3.14% for ESRX's investors in the last three months.

Trend

ESRX has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, ESRX underperformed the SP500 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days ESRX underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months ESRX was mostly profitable and delivered on average +0.06% per day. It's best return during this period (of +3.72%) was on Thursday, 25 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.69%) was on Wednesday, 24 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 8 Nov, 2018 and went on till 14 Nov, 2018. The trend delivered -3.04% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 21 Nov, 2018 and ended on 30 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +6.34% to investors.

ESRX had 9 profitable and 3 loss making months over the last year. ESRX was profitable in more months than SP500 index. ESRX significantly outperformed SP500 index in Apr 2018, when it returned +11.54% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. ESRX had a longer winning streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It went up in 8 straight months (from Apr 2018 to Nov 2018) during which period it delivered +40.78%. It is interesting to note that both ESRX and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Everyday is a bank account, and time is our currency. No one is rich, no one is poor, we've got 24 hours each.
-- Christopher Rice

ESRX is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in ESRX's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 5 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ESRX has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ESRX to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ESRX a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

Investors trading in ESRX derivatives at this moment can consider 'Covered Call' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than ESRX. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than ESRX in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ESRX.

On a general note (since you are interested in ESRX), two instruments that deserve special mention are AMRH and NSPR. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.

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