EDGEWELL PERSONAL CARE CO

40.65 -0.23 (-0.56%) Sell

EPC investors dump it

13 min read

EDGEWELL PERSONAL CARE CO ranked among the worst performers on Friday. It fell by -0.56% to close at 40.65. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 75% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0191%.

[Themes containing EPC]

Buy-and-Hold investors in EPC experienced a maximum drawdown of -16.53% over the last three months. It fell by -14.65% during this strong bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals.

Trend

EPC has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 3 Feb, 2016 to 2 Oct, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, EPC underperformed the SP500 index on 53% days.

During the last three months EPC was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.23% per day. It's best return during this period (of +3.49%) was on Thursday, 25 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -8.97%) was on Tuesday, 13 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 7 losing days, which started on 6 Nov, 2018 and ended on 14 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -13.23% of investor capital.

During the last year EPC had 4 profitable months and 8 loss making months. EPC returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. EPC was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -18.13% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. EPC had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Jan 2018 to May 2018) during which period it delivered -27.6%. It is interesting to note that both EPC and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Financial security and independence are like a three-legged stool resting on savings, insurance and investments.
-- Brian Tracy

EPC is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in EPC's volatility from 10 Oct, 2018 to 14 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that EPC has positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect EPC to make attempts to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes EPC a good candidate for momentum based trading on short-term bullish trends or counter-trends.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than EPC. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than EPC in your portfolio. EPC usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

Based on your interest in EPC you may find it interesting to know that KEYS and ZBRA are both small caps that have shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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