9.9 -0.71 (-7.22%) Sell

ELF investors dump it for better alternatives

13 min read

E.L.F. BEAUTY, INC. delivered massive losses on Friday. It lost -7.22% to close at 9.9. It is currently trading -57% below it's 52 week high of 23.03.

[Themes containing ELF]

ELF is currently in a down trend. Over the last three months 2 bearish signals have generated a profit of +20.53% for investors.


ELF has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 29 Nov, 2016. Over the last 2 years and 3 months, ELF underperformed the SP500 index on 53% days.

ELF returned losses on 64% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.42% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +19.19%, during this period, on Tuesday, 6 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 9 Oct, 2018 and went on till 16 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -15.96% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 30 Oct, 2018 and ended on 7 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +28.93% to investors.

ELF had 3 profitable and 9 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, ELF underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. ELF was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Dec 2018, returned -22.41% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. ELF had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Jun 2018 to Oct 2018) during which period it delivered -60.93%.

Happiness is not in the mere possession of money; it lies in the joy of achievement, in the thrill of creative effort.
-- Franklin D. Roosevelt

ELF is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ELF's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 6 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ELF has positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ELF to make attempts to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ELF a good candidate for momentum based trading on short-term bullish trends or counter-trends.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than ELF. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than ELF in your portfolio. ELF usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

On a general note (since you are interested in ELF), two mid cap instruments that deserve special mention are TWTR and ABMD. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.

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