35.33 -0.08 (-0.23%) Buy

EHTH investors not showing any loss of confidence as it pauses to catch its breath

13 min read

EHEALTH, INC. performed worse than the broader market on Friday. It delivered -0.23% to close at 35.33. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 80% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0191%.

[Themes containing EHTH]

EHTH showed a strong bullish trend over the last 3 months. During this period EHTH surged by +25.28% and saw a maximum drawdown of -11.94%. There was a long signal during this period which returned +16.56%.


EHTH has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 28 Oct, 2016 to 3 Dec, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, EHTH outperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.

EHTH returned losses on 51% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.42% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +13.95%, during this period, on Friday, 26 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 5 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +10.47%) started on 12 Oct, 2018 and went on till 18 Oct, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -7.81%) started on 19 Oct, 2018 and went on till 25 Oct, 2018.

The last 12 months saw EHTH's investors making profits in 8 months and incurring losses in 4 months. During the last year, EHTH and SP500 index had the same number of profitable months. EHTH significantly outperformed SP500 index in Apr 2018, when it returned +30.11% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. EHTH had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 5 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both EHTH and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

There's more honor in investment management than in investment banking.
-- Charlie Munger

EHTH is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in EHTH's volatility from 1 Oct, 2018 to 18 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that EHTH has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect EHTH to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes EHTH a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than EHTH. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than EHTH in your portfolio. EHTH usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

Based on your interest in EHTH you may find it interesting to know that ADMS has delivered similar performance as EHTH and can be considered as an alternative investment candidate (to EHTH).

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