DUNKIN' BRANDS GROUP, INC.

71.63 -1.8 (-2.52%) Sell

DNKN is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

DUNKIN' BRANDS GROUP, INC. significantly underperformed today. It fell by -2.52% to close at 71.63. It's recent 5 day performance has been +0.48%, -2.22%, +1.07%, +0.65% and +0.7%.

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DNKN showed a bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period DNKN fell by -6.13% and saw a maximum drawdown of -7.82%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in DNKN till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.

Trend

DNKN has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 7 Jan, 2016 to 30 Oct, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, DNKN outperformed the SP500 index on 53% days.

During the last three months DNKN was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.09% per day. It's best return during this period (of +4.78%) was on Thursday, 25 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.06%) was on Wednesday, 24 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 profitable days, which started on 26 Nov, 2018 and went on till 3 Dec, 2018. This bullish trend returned +5.25% to investors.

During the last year DNKN had 7 profitable months and 5 loss making months. DNKN returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. DNKN significantly outperformed SP500 index in Jun 2018, when it returned +7.87% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. DNKN and SP500 index, both had periods of 6 consecutive profitable months.

Money often costs too much.
-- Ralph Waldo Emerson

DNKN is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in DNKN's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 30 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that DNKN has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect DNKN to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes DNKN a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than DNKN. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than DNKN in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than DNKN.

Based on your interest in DNKN you may find it interesting to know that V and PFE are both large caps that have shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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