56.73 -1.24 (-2.19%) Sell

Waiting to invest in CVLT? Avoid at the moment as it delivered massive losses

13 min read

COMMVAULT SYSTEMS INC delivered massive losses on Friday. It delivered -2.19% to close at 56.73. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 71% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0191%.

[Themes containing CVLT]

CVLT showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period CVLT delivered -17.18% and saw a maximum drawdown of -21.21%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +17.18%.


CVLT has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 25 Jan, 2016 to 18 Apr, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, CVLT outperformed the SP500 index on 53% days.

During the last three months CVLT was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.28% per day. It's best return during this period (of +5.17%) was on Wednesday, 31 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.87%) was on Wednesday, 10 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 losing days, which started on 4 Oct, 2018 and ended on 11 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -10.56% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw CVLT's investors making profits in 6 months and incurring losses in 6 months. CVLT was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. CVLT was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -14.17% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. CVLT had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from May 2018 to Jul 2018) during which period it delivered -9.08%.

Thirty to 40 years ago, most financial decisions were fairly simple.
-- Scott Cook

CVLT is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in CVLT's volatility from 18 Sep, 2018 to 31 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that CVLT has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect CVLT to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes CVLT a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than CVLT. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than CVLT in your portfolio. CVLT usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

Based on your interest in CVLT you may find it interesting to know that EHC is a small cap that has shown remarkable performance and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.

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